As South Sudan aims to hold elections in December, concerns are growing about whether current peace efforts can prevent renewed conflict. The fragile transition process, rooted in the 2018 peace agreement, faces mounting strain from increased ceasefire violations, political divisions, and ongoing insecurity. Rivalry between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar continues to drive instability, often fuelling broader ethnic tensions. Three parallel initiatives aim to stabilise the situation, focusing on dialogue, ceasefire commitments, and preparations for elections, yet many critical reforms - such as security sector unification and constitutional development - remain delayed. With millions displaced and humanitarian needs rising, there is a risk that the elections could proceed without resolving underlying conflicts, potentially undermining long-term peace and stability in a country already facing profound challenges.