As Donald Trump warns Iran that ‘time is running out’ for a nuclear deal (see ), and with US forces reportedly preparing for strikes on Iran within days, the consequences are far from clear. Limited ‘surgical’ attacks could hit Revolutionary Guard facilities, missile sites and nuclear infrastructure, but hopes for a rapid transition to democracy look highly optimistic, given past interventions elsewhere. Another scenario is the regime surviving but moderating its behaviour, though Iran’s leaders have historically resisted change. Many observers fear a collapse followed by hard-line military rule, or worse, nationwide chaos and conflict involving ethnic minorities. Iran has vowed retaliation, which could take the form of missile and drone attacks on US bases or warships, or mining the Strait of Hormuz, which is a vital shipping ‘chokepoint’, especially for global oil and LNG. Iran’s Arab neighbours, all US allies, are understandably jittery that Iran could attack them. The most dangerous scenario is escalation into a wider war with no clear end-state and severe regional and economic fallout.