A new report from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies estimates that around 1.2 million Russian troops have been killed, wounded or gone missing since the invasion of Ukraine nearly four years ago. Despite this enormous human cost, Russia has expanded its control of Ukrainian territory by only about 12%: in the past two years, only by 1.5%. The statistics challenge assertions that a Russian victory is inevitable, noting that Ukraine’s defensive strategy of trenches, mines, obstacles, drones and artillery has limited Russian advances to minimal gains. Mark Rutte has said that in December alone Russia lost 30,000 soldiers (in Afghanistan, they lost 20,000 in ten years). The toll far exceeds Russia’s losses in all its post–World War II conflicts combined. Economically, the war has weakened Russia’s long-term prospects, slowing growth, deepening labour shortages. The war is burdening the not only the current Russian economy but its future prospects, the report says: the country ‘is becoming a second- or third-rate economic power’. Yet Putin is unlikely to settle for a peace deal without further Western pressure on his regime.